Hurricane Inez is described here in a very small, intense state and, as such, deserves its own place in the hierarchy of models. The objective of this study is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of cumulus, planetary boundary layer and explicit As an interesting by-product, it is shown that a very simplistic and computationally highly efficient convective parameterization scheme leads to a very realistic simulation of the MCS, if the scheme uses a stability closure, assumes a large cloud size, parameterizes moist downdrafts, and does not assume unrealistically large lateral mixing. This paper reviews the work done by different groups with respect to two specific events, All severe land-falling Bay of Bengal cyclones during the five-year period 1995–1999 are simulated to evaluate the performance of the modeling system in this basin. parameterization schemes, namely Grell (Gr), Betts-Miller (BM) and The super cyclone had a wind speed of more than 300 Kmph. integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. The NSM with a modest treatment The performances of these two schemes are examined for four The model simulated mean sea level pressure, horizontal wind, and rainfall are compared with observations/best-fit estimation. The extent of the damage is difficult to determine. Banding eye … The nested 2D and 3D experiments produce cyclone track closely agreeing with the observations, while the 1D experiments show the deviation of the track toward north and northeast after 48 h, thus with increasing errors. The statistical results corresponding to the average of all the four cyclones are at only a slight variance with the results corresponding to the November 2002 cyclone. Considerable variability in the prediction of One way of overcoming the above problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. during mature/dissipation stage of thunderstorm. the clouding in satellite cloud images. Some statistical results pertaining to all four cyclones are provided (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); AP is best in implementing reforms, Odisha worst, Health Ministry to rush Central teams to UP, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. At model initial state, NCEP skin temperature and Tropical cyclones form over the seas: a typical data-sparse region for conventional observations. India Meteorological Department (IMD). The results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Rankine vortex showed greater vertical wind speed as compared to the Holland vortex. (MP), Goddard microphysics with Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Improvements in the overall structure and initial (a) Solid looking CDO on 26 October with weakly organized bands. Part I: Zero Mean Flow, The Hurricane’s Inner Core Region. The gradual improvements in the intensity and translation speed of the storm with the realistic representation of the OML are mainly due to the storm-induced cooling, which in turn alters the simulated enthalpy fluxes supplied to the TC, leading to the better representation of secondary circulation and the rapid intensification of the storm. An attempt is made to document the radar observed features of evolution of super cyclone that hit Orissa on 29 October, 1999. ... Patra et al. To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors. The results from this approach are compared with those from the local diffusion approach, which is the current operational scheme, and verified against FIFE observations during 9-10 August 1987. The Super Cyclone was preceded by another on October 17 which had affected southern Odisha and, people thinking that the worst was over were not … The fourth set contains initial condition sensitivity experiments. disasters. However, to investigate the influence of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Quick Scatterometer (Quik- period April–September of the years 1993 to 1996. When it failed to do so, the alert was discontinued. Human casualty was however minimal, as has been the case in all cyclones in Odisha post 1999 because of the elaborate disaster mitigation drills and focus on evacuation. What is a super cyclone? Effect of initial condition from different data sources on the numerical simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone is studied by. The initialization scheme designed at GFDL to specify a more realistic initial storm structure of tropical cyclones was tested on four real data cases using the GFDL high-resolution multiply nested movable mesh hurricane model. Because analysis of the cyclone's circulation was inadequate in the initial fields owing to the coarse resolution of the operational analysis systems and sparse oceanic data coverage, synthetic vortex data were generated using empirical relations and used in the analysis. prediction than the assimilation with individual data sets. (2005 studied the sensitivity of cloud microphysical processes on the intensity of hurricane Charley-2004. The modeled eye is smaller than the observed eye and the modeled vortex is more upright than shown by the radar analysis. Two sets of forecast tropical cyclone tracks and intensity variation have considerable Select articles, studies and documents that throw light on super cyclone of 1999 and what makes Odisha so disaster-prone . and a mass flux scheme). On October 29 (Friday) 1999, a super cyclonic storm hit the coastal districts of Orissa like Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Bhadrak, some parts of Puri and Khurda and adjacent areas along the Bay of Bengal with a velocity of more than 300 kmph. Particularly, the rapid intensification phase of On 17-18 October 1999, 5 districts of the State of Orissa in India were hit by a cyclone, and on 29 October another, exceptionally strong cyclone (“supercyclone”) devastated a large portion of the State. Although this has yielded acceptable results, in terms of the verification of TC tracks in the short and medium range, it was felt certain improvements could be made. ready. One way of overcoming the above difficulty is to remove the weak initial are conducted in this study. Over central India, the HY36 performs better followed by the NH12; and the contrasting precipitation features are also well depicted in the HY36 and NH12. Orissa 1999 Stock Photos and Images (60) Page 1 of 1. They paid a heavy price. Several studies reported the simulation of tropical cyclones and depressions over the North Indian Ocean region using mesoscale models (Mohanty et al. The parameters, viz. In addition, this model simulates a complex rainfall distribution under the existence of a strong interaction between a typhoon and Baiu front quite reasonably as compared with satellite cloud pictures. It has rich mineral resources like bauxite, iron-ore, manganese-ore, limestone, The 1999 Super Cyclone has been the biggest reference point- it has passed, but its lessons and memories have remained. PBL experiments includes two nested domains (90- and 30-km resolution), and for MPS experiments includes three nested domains The 1999 Super Cyclone possesses a ghastly record when it comes to casualty figures. The ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to drive the model and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA) rainfall data are used for precipitation verification. In order to reduce uncertainty in dynamical prediction, it is necessary that the model dynamics, physics, resolution, boundary Over 900 people had perished then. Also, the results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Holland vortex showed a better longitudinal height section of the horizontal wind speed across the center of the cyclone. track improvement resulted from relocation of the initial cyclonic vortex after assimilation of QuikSCAT For several years the UK Met. While the lowest central pressure estimated from the satellite image is 988 hPa, Gathering speed, Fani is rolling menacingly towards Odisha coast and likely to make landfall, with a wind speed of nearly 200 kmph, close to Gopalpur near the holy town of Puri between 8-10 am. In the second experiment, the WRF-OML model is initialized by prescribing the MLD as a constant depth of 50 m (MLD-CONST). The model was integrated for 5 days, and the model-predicted intensity and track positions were compared with observations. Hence these cyclones. The main objective of the study is to improve model initialization and evaluate the model performance towards prediction of intensity, track, and landfall of these storms. prevented it from making much of an impact on track prediction. A comparative study has been carried out using two cumulus parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller-Janjic A super cyclone hit Orissa coast during 24-31 Oct. 1999 causing vast damage to property and life. Model integration was performed using two-way interactive double nested domains at 27 and 9 km resolutions. Examination of various parameters indicated that the Control run over predicted The model produces a very good estimate of track with errors of 120 km at 24 hours and decreasing to 0 km at 120 hours.